# Table 4d: Lifecycle vs Hot Money Positions & Trimming Robustness

| Variable | Full: lifecycle | Full: hot_money | ExFC: lifecycle | ExFC: hot_money | Trim p5/p95: IFI | Trim p5/p95: liab | Trim p10/p90: IFI | Trim p10/p90: liab |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Z_1 | 221.7632 | -184.2036* | 286.7548 | -157.6171 | 128.2042 | 161.5389* | 216.5003* | 166.0021** |
| | (298.7869) | (105.0960) | (300.8209) | (103.4884) | (166.2106) | (90.6543) | (125.6632) | (72.3612) |
| Z_2 | -11.8861 | 32.6851** | -23.5815 | 28.7805* | 2.7038 | -16.3384 | -15.4508 | -18.1390* |
| | (45.4453) | (15.9309) | (45.7912) | (15.6793) | (25.2343) | (13.7838) | (19.0976) | (10.9791) |
| Z_3 | 0.1508 | -1.4041** | 0.6450 | -1.2662* | -0.3650 | 0.5817 | 0.3261 | 0.6389 |
| | (1.8906) | (0.6579) | (1.9064) | (0.6468) | (1.0451) | (0.5695) | (0.7874) | (0.4524) |
| fiscal_bal_gdp | -0.6953*** | -0.0210 | -0.7519*** | -0.0735 | -0.8124*** | -0.6602*** | -0.7684*** | -0.6632*** |
| | (0.2650) | (0.0997) | (0.2664) | (0.1001) | (0.1522) | (0.0883) | (0.1281) | (0.0818) |
| nfa_gdp_lag | -15.4188*** | -0.7836 | -16.7265*** | -0.9782 | -3.6988** | -7.9142*** | -9.8103*** | -7.6909*** |
| | (2.5419) | (0.9484) | (2.5535) | (0.9491) | (1.8663) | (1.1248) | (1.8666) | (0.9972) |
| log_rel_opw | -36.3301*** | -6.3275* | -37.6820*** | -5.6220 | -49.7282*** | -21.4290*** | -19.0608*** | -18.2789*** |
| | (9.9125) | (3.4920) | (9.9506) | (3.4328) | (5.4273) | (2.9489) | (4.0316) | (2.3543) |
| kaopen | 0.9799 | 2.0661** | 1.0649 | 2.0012** | 5.3421*** | 3.0397*** | 5.9038*** | 2.9437*** |
| | (2.7434) | (1.0174) | (2.7489) | (1.0127) | (1.5425) | (0.8704) | (1.2244) | (0.7363) |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Dep var | lifecycle_gdp | hot_money_gdp | lifecycle_gdp | hot_money_gdp | gross_ifi | gross_liab_gdp | gross_ifi | gross_liab_gdp |
| N | 4540 | 4528 | 4344 | 4332 | 4204 | 4225 | 3835 | 3785 |
| R² | 0.0156 | 0.0314 | 0.0001 | 0.0207 | -0.0158 | 0.0764 | 0.0971 | 0.0762 |
| Countries | 164 | 164 | 158 | 158 | 164 | 164 | 162 | 163 |

*Panel GLS with AR(1) errors. Standard errors in parentheses.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*